Hillary Clinton today sounds like someone who’s either seen encouraging internal polling or early exit poll results. She said in Houston this morning, “You know, this is a long process,” and that her campaign is just hitting its stride.
Just a few weeks ago her husband said she’d need to win both Texas and Ohio to continue.
Obama’s campaign quickly responded with a statement from a spokesman. “Three weeks ago, when they led polls in Texas and Ohio by 20 points, the Clinton campaign set their own test for today’s primaries.”
But Obama might have the same information Hillary does; the spokesman set low expectations for the Illinois senator and said only that he will maintain his delegate lead.
If you plug in the numbers at Slate.com’s delegate calculator, you can see how it’s nearly impossible for Clinton to prevail.
Some of the superdelegates are already breaking for Obama. If they coalesce around him, perhaps as early as tomorrow, they could be the ones to decide the nomination.
2 comments
March 4, 2008 at 10:16 pm
Roads
A week is a long time in politics.
So said Harold Macmillan, many years ago, and this week that really is precisely true. I’ve noticed a more upbeat Hillary these past few days as well. She’s been smiling more. She seems more relaxed.
It’s almost like that school exam she’s waited for has finally arrived. There’s a kind of grim elation there of the kind you sometimes feel as you face your strongest test.
Perhaps it’s liberating for her now, in a way, to know that she can lose. To look into the face of defeat, to know that the worst can happen, and that she can accept it.
Or perhaps she’s just the consummate politician? That’s not the same thing as the best candidate, of course. Her cause may appear almost hopeless, but all the same those smiles will help her, just a little.
Meanwhile, Obama is gaining credibility and respect and votes with every single day. But now he really does have so much more to lose.
To leave such a monumentally important decision in the hands of the bemused voters of Ohio and Texas seems almost too much for the health of the world right now. We’re waiting eagerly on this contest, all across the globe, with more excitement and anticipation than any of you in America might easily appreciate or understand. It really is so important to all of us that we can re-engage with your country again at last.
This primary campaign has seen so many twists and turns, allowing momentum to wax and wane over long weeks and months, and affording states the chance to wobble and change their minds on the basis of how others have voted before them.
It’s a crazy system you have, surely – but it certainly is compelling.
What a week ahead, for you, and for all the world as well.
March 4, 2008 at 9:50 pm
ellaella
First, thank you for leaving the first comment. I’m delighted.
Yes, we do have a crazy system, thanks to being a federation of states, and it’s only compounded by political parties being allowed to make rules for their own procedures, correctly allowed I believe.
Here’s the difference between Hillary and Huckabee – he has just conceded the Republican nomination to John McCain, who won enough delegates tonight. Huck didn’t wait till tomorrow or Thursday, as was rumored he would, to bow out and leave the stage.
No matter how you dice it, Hillary can’t win on delegate numbers alone. I wish I knew the page stats for the Slate delegate calculator; we political junkies have all but made it a homepage. Even if she won Ohio and Texas tonight and every remaining primary she would not have more delegates than Obama. She would have to try to strong arm superdelegates into supporting her, even if she lost in their states.
A superdelegate (often an elected official) overturning the will of the people? No, won’t happen. A savvy senator urging her party to overturn the will of the people? Not likely. She’s run a horrible campaign but she’s a damn good politician. Too good, in fact, for many people’s taste. So she should accept a few laurels tonight then bow out gracefully tomorrow. But I bet she won’t.
Thank you again.